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Winter 2012/2013 early look

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Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by snowdog on 2012-04-15, 5:39 pm

Credit to Bastardi for posting this. Early look from the JMA on fall and winter temps. Looks pretty good for those that like cold and snow, hell just about anything will beat last winter. JMA is pretty bad for short term forecasts but their long term stuff has been pretty good here of late. Take it with a grain of salt but here it is....(left pic is Sept, Oct, Nov...right pic is Dec, Jan, Feb)


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-04-15, 9:15 pm

I bet June July and August probably looks similar to those also

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by jmundie on 2012-04-15, 10:06 pm

The JMA is scary cold fall and winter. What it's showing right now would be colder than 10-11

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Reb on 2012-04-15, 10:27 pm

guarantee it said the same thing this time last year No

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-04-15, 10:28 pm

Nope...it nailed last winter as a torch!!


Looks like we may very well have a Nino with a negative PDO this winter also.


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-16, 6:51 am

Hope the summer is, indeed, cool so I can save money up to pay the winter electric bill.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-04-16, 8:44 am

i wont fall for this again, getting my hopes up for a good winter to only get let dowm... but i will take my chances on a elnino winter.hopefully the nao will corporate and be our friend this winter.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-16, 9:13 am

The CPC is seeing normal to above normal temps for fall/winter. It appears they've not updated their forecasts since March 15th though.



Here is the main link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by snowdog on 2012-06-08, 9:51 am

Bastardi giving an early look on the winter of 12/13. As Toot said above, a Nino in a cold PDO. If Bastardi's analogs are right, it could be a decent winter. Of course the worlds going to end in December so I hope it is a front loaded winter. yikes

LINK TO ARTICLE

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-08, 10:53 am

After observing the last three winters, I put more weight on the state of the NAO/AO, than the Nina/Nino. I’ve read that there seems to be a connection between the solar cycles, and the NAO/AO during winter. Solar max= positive leaning NAO, solar minimum= negative leaning NAO. During the winters of 09 and 10, the sun was just coming out of one of the deepest slumbers in recent memory, and we did have two negative NAO winters in a row. The sun is now in a more active phase—approaching solar maximum, so it will be interesting to see if it really does affect the phase of the NAO/AO over the northern hemisphere this coming winter. study
If we have two positive NAO/AO winters in a row, I'll certainly buy into the hypothesis. scratch

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-08, 10:56 pm

WxFreak wrote:After observing the last three winters, I put more weight on the state of the NAO/AO, than the Nina/Nino.

Most definately...IMO opposite values of local teleconnections (NAO/PNA/AO) has in the last few years.. clearly shown to have much more bearing on the outcome of our winter than opposite values of ENSO does.

Of course...there is a very simple reason for this IMO. It's because they are measured more closely to our backyards than say...ENSO..QBO...AMO..WPO..or EPO is and therefore have more directly related impacts.

At least thats what I believe anyways beer

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-10, 11:50 pm

Looks like the CFS is still predicting some strong high latitude blocking...in turn resulting in a pretty cold winter. pals

I stole this image from JB's FB page

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-12, 6:00 am

good article over on accuweather, ole henry over there is saying he is seeing signs of even a stronger el nino developing by fall... wash

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-13, 8:57 am

If blocking actually develops and locks in for much of the winter, and the developing El Nino gives us an active sub-tropical jet --we just might have a winter that could make up for the last sucky one we just endured.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-13, 5:37 pm

WxFreak wrote:If blocking actually develops and locks in for much of the winter, and the developing El Nino gives us an active sub-tropical jet --we just might have a winter that could make up for the last sucky one we just endured.

The negative PDO is another card that argues for a colder and snowier winter here. So far there looks to be several signals that suggest cold and snowy..The coming Nino....-PDO....-NAO Blocking forecasted by seasonal models.

We only had the favorable PDO to work with last winter and seasonal models at this point last year were predicting the winter torch that actually occurred.

Im liking what im seeing at this point beer

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-06-14, 7:27 am

Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:If blocking actually develops and locks in for much of the winter, and the developing El Nino gives us an active sub-tropical jet --we just might have a winter that could make up for the last sucky one we just endured.

The negative PDO is another card that argues for a colder and snowier winter here. So far there looks to be several signals that suggest cold and snowy..The coming Nino....-PDO....-NAO Blocking forecasted by seasonal models.

We only had the favorable PDO to work with last winter and seasonal models at this point last year were predicting the winter torch that actually occurred.

Im liking what im seeing at this point beer

And I'm liking what I am hearing from you!! pals

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-14, 7:49 pm

Vanster67 wrote:

And I'm liking what I am hearing from you!! pals


Stolen from JB's FB page.. is the CFS seasonal model forecast for Temp departure from normal

Dec..Jan...Feb

cold


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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by jmundie on 2012-06-14, 9:36 pm

That's as cold as this winter was hot.

If that verifies...

Mother of God.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by snowdog on 2012-06-14, 11:35 pm

I wonder what the JAMSTEC is currently showing for the winter. Bastardi hasn't mentioned it in a while.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-15, 8:17 am

They say that mother nature always balances the books over time. If it verifies, it would appear she knows our side of the globe had it easy last winter, and we're gonna pay our dues this next one.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-18, 5:56 pm

for what i am seeing on sites by major mets, the year 1976-1977 is the most often used for this upcoming winter... in the mother of god... if this is true... hope we have a winter were the main water lines bust... sick n tired of these pansy winters, hell... if i want a winter like we had last year i wold move to florida wash

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-18, 7:21 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:for what i am seeing on sites by major mets, the year 1976-1977 is the most often used for this upcoming winter... in the mother of god... if this is true... hope we have a winter were the main water lines bust... sick n tired of these pansy winters, hell... if i want a winter like we had last year i wold move to florida

I enjoy some good winter lovin', but I also love me a shower every morning. I'll keep my water line, please.

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-06-18, 9:53 pm

Agreed Freak..not only that.. but I dont want to fix any broken pipes either. Other than that...bring it rock on

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-06-18, 10:07 pm

Toot wrote:Agreed Freak..not only that.. but I dont want to fix any broken pipes either. Other than that...bring it rock on
i guess should have made myself more clearer, i meant the cities main water line... i dont want no pipes to bust at my house either. lol lol! lol!

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Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by WxFreak on 2012-06-19, 8:20 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Toot wrote:Agreed Freak..not only that.. but I dont want to fix any broken pipes either. Other than that...bring it rock on
i guess should have made myself more clearer, i meant the cities main water line... i dont want no pipes to bust at my house either. lol lol! lol!

LOL...you hard core. But let's keep the water flowin, while the winter winds a' blowin'. torch

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