Jet stream cast
enlarge
WRF cast
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6421)
 
Stovepipe (4154)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1297)
 
John1122 (887)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Jed33 (846)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 
Reb (745)
 


Winter 2012/2013 early look

Page 7 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-10-01, 9:58 am

well folks, the seasons first fantasy snow flakes have show on this morning 6zgfs... at 264 hours... i know its out there ways still... and be gone by 12z today... but at least first signs of flurries over extreme ne part of the state has appeared

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts: 1297
Join date: 2011-12-05
Age: 51
Location: jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-10-01, 7:55 pm

JOE LUNDBERG latest blog out this afternoon, still sticking with his guns with a 76 77 analog... nice read over there on accuweather.com, anybody intersted

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts: 1297
Join date: 2011-12-05
Age: 51
Location: jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-10-01, 8:02 pm

This is from a former East TN TV Met Bob Becker

East Tennessee Winter Outlook 2012-2013

By Chief Meteorologist Bob Becker and Meteorologist Jeremy Buckles:

Scientifically, there are three large-scale patterns that can affect our weather here in East Tennessee: the AO (Arctic Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and ENSO (El Niño/La Niña/or Neutral). The AO is positive and trending positive which normally means not as much cold air intrusions into the mid-latitudes. The NAO has been negative which would allow blocking off of the Eastern U.S. and allow cold air to push into the Eastern U.S. and stay for a longer period of time. However, it is trending positive and looks somewhat similar to the pattern a year ago. That shows us that the NAO is trying to trend back positive once again which would lead to less cold air staying for a long period of time over the Eastern United States. The ENSO is clearly trending to an El Niño pattern and most climate forecasters agree on this. For this reason, we forecast a mild to moderate El Niño during the winter months. This tells us two things. First, the pattern looks to be conducive to temperatures that are normal to above normal (this is not saying that we won’t have some cold snaps…it just looks to be normal to above normal temperatures for the average over the winter). It also looks like that when we do have cold snaps that they will be shorter. Second, with El Nino, I expect to see more precipitation over the Southeast U.S. and Southern U.S. in general. That means we should expect to see above normal precipitation. Now what everyone will want to know, putting the precipitation and temperature forecasts together, it appears that we will see normal to below normal snowfall over the valley while the higher elevations (such as the Smoky Mountains and Cumberland Plateau) could see normal to above normal snowfall. The terrain is always a big factor, but it could be a bigger factor this year. In many cases, the higher elevations may be cold enough for snow but lower elevations will not be. However, there is a higher chance of a significant snowfall this winter across East Tennessee compared to last year. With higher precipitation totals, and much of this coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, there will be a higher chance of a big snow if this can meet up with cold air over our area. Essentially, if the wet and winter-like pattern continues like we’ve seen through September, it will provide us with the chance of some big snows depending upon if we have enough cold air in place. So snow lovers, stay excited and stay tuned! There is a higher chance of a big snowfall compared to our winter last year!

As trends change, we will make adjustments and let you know!




Not sure I agree with all aspects of it... I just thought it was a good read beer

_________________
My Blog

Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts: 6421
Join date: 2011-12-05
Location: Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-10-01, 10:47 pm

I disagree with Bob Becker (above post) on a few points..Mainly the AO. He says its trending positive..I clearly see it trending negative!!

(Time Sensitive) Hotlinked


I look at AO ensemble guidance quite often because it can tell you were the NAO is headed even when the NAO guidance cant. The CPC's warm fall forecast could be in trouble. Ive actually thought and been guided by guidance that we would have a warm fall also but...im not so sure now.

Im beginning to wonder if the whole fall pattern is not dominated by the EPO.. therefore we here in the east would be warmer when its positive and downright cold when its negative. The cold seems to be actually enhanced due to more blocking in the North Atlantic and ENSO to some degree.


_________________
My Blog

Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts: 6421
Join date: 2011-12-05
Location: Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-01, 11:49 pm

CPC just went below normal for the east in Oct.

Not often that they go with any expansive below normal areas.

Maybe we can lock the -epo through the winter like the pos ap/nao last winter - with the subtropical jet pumping and a ridge in Alaska, that should equal good times for us.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts: 743
Join date: 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-10-03, 9:08 am

Accuweather winter snowcast


_________________
My Blog

Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts: 6421
Join date: 2011-12-05
Location: Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-03, 9:55 am

Toot wrote:Accuweather winter snowcast


Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts: 4154
Join date: 2011-12-05
Age: 38
Location: Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-10-03, 2:34 pm


windstorm
Member

Posts: 689
Join date: 2012-03-27
Location: Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-03, 2:55 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
Toot wrote:Accuweather winter snowcast


lol rfl

Jed33
Admin

Posts: 846
Join date: 2011-12-09
Location: Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-05, 4:59 am

Very detailed and hopefully correct forecast.

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/?m=0

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts: 887
Join date: 2011-12-06
Location: Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-10-05, 6:03 am

John1122 wrote:Very detailed and hopefully correct forecast.

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/?m=0
Thanks John, A very good read, very informative. It would be awesome if it was to verify!!!!!!!! rock on

Vanster67
Admin

Posts: 629
Join date: 2011-12-08
Age: 47
Location: Monterey, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-05, 9:48 am

Wow, that was a very very interesting write-up. The best I've read so far about the upcoming winter. It's difficult to not get excited after reading that if you love snow and live in TN. Excellent find John and thanks for sharing!

Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts: 4154
Join date: 2011-12-05
Age: 38
Location: Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-10-05, 7:40 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Wow, that was a very very interesting write-up. The best I've read so far about the upcoming winter. It's difficult to not get excited after reading that if you love snow and live in TN. Excellent find John and thanks for sharing!

I agree.

Dyersburg Weather
Founding Member

Posts: 342
Join date: 2011-12-26
Age: 45
Location: Dyersburg , TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by VFL on 2012-10-05, 9:45 pm

popcorn

VFL
Member

Posts: 336
Join date: 2012-04-10
Age: 39
Location: North Knox County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-10-11, 8:56 am

This outlook is a little different than others as it is based strictly on current sea surface temperatures. Its one of many products produced and used by the climate prediction center.


_________________
My Blog

Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts: 6421
Join date: 2011-12-05
Location: Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-11, 10:56 am

I'm seeing 51-52 and 2003-2004 stand out as 2 very good analogs.

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts: 855
Join date: 2011-12-14
Age: 36
Location: Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-10-16, 10:37 pm


windstorm
Member

Posts: 689
Join date: 2012-03-27
Location: Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-10-18, 6:32 pm

CPC made a huge shift in their three month outlook!

They went from warm in the east (Previous outlook)


To warm in the west (Current outlook)


Definately more of a Nino look. I havent read their discussion..but I wonder what data made them make such a drastic shift?


_________________
My Blog

Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts: 6421
Join date: 2011-12-05
Location: Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-10-18, 10:49 pm

If this comes true and we could get the Greenland block on the other side we would be doing good. But too much cold often shuts the door on the GOM. Just my 2 cents worth.

windstorm
Member

Posts: 689
Join date: 2012-03-27
Location: Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-19, 12:51 am

Toot wrote:CPC made a huge shift in their three month outlook!

They went from warm in the east (Previous outlook)


To warm in the west (Current outlook)


Definately more of a Nino look. I havent read their discussion..but I wonder what data made them make such a drastic shift?

I think the main reason they changed their forecast was due to the busted Nino. Also, would it kill them to throw some blue on the graphic? Surely we aren't going to torch 2 winters in a row.

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts: 855
Join date: 2011-12-14
Age: 36
Location: Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by skillsweather on 2012-10-19, 1:40 am

Just wait if this winter becomes snowy they will change it the next day and claim they got the forecast correct. I seen it happen before (although not that extreme ofc lol). I would love to see them have us in like 60% above normal then by early January have them have us all in 60% below normal. Very Happy

skillsweather
Founding Member

Posts: 311
Join date: 2011-12-06
Age: 23
Location: tennessee Wilson county Ne Corner

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-19, 5:13 am

skillsweather wrote:Just wait if this winter becomes snowy they will change it the next day and claim they got the forecast correct. I seen it happen before (although not that extreme ofc lol). I would love to see them have us in like 60% above normal then by early January have them have us all in 60% below normal. Very Happy

Actually in 2009-10 they jumped on above normal and rode it nearly the entire winter in their 90, then 30 day outlooks. That inspite of the fact that each period kept rolling in below normal.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts: 887
Join date: 2011-12-06
Location: Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by Toot on 2012-10-19, 9:42 am

snowdog wrote:
I think the main reason they changed their forecast was due to the busted Nino. Also, would it kill them to throw some blue on the graphic? Surely we aren't going to torch 2 winters in a row.

You would think they would go warmer in the east since the Nino hasnt showed up SST wise. They were predicting warmer with the thinking that a weak Nino would develop..it doesnt and they go colder or equal..lol wacko

_________________
My Blog

Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts: 6421
Join date: 2011-12-05
Location: Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-10-19, 11:15 am

If anyone was watching the weather Channel yesterday NOAA put out it's first winter outlook, which in the day's to come will be fine tune as the day's go by. Let's just say it was maybe this or maybe that. Nothing clear for us in the south. They will release another outlook maybe in the next 2 to 3 weeks. I think since nothing is clearly driving this forecast and it's in more or less in a stand by mode they don't know. No strong El Nino, No strong LA Nino and more or less weak at best on El Nino. They just don't know. If this is the case anything could happen.

windstorm
Member

Posts: 689
Join date: 2012-03-27
Location: Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter 2012/2013 early look

Post by windstorm on 2012-10-19, 1:36 pm


windstorm
Member

Posts: 689
Join date: 2012-03-27
Location: Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Page 7 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum